Saturday, December 29, 2007

Time to look ahead to 2008

What will the markets do in 2008? If the fed keeps printing money 24/7 and helicopter Ben Bernake can keep the pyramid scheme going markets should be ok. Most of the talking heads on TV seem to be herding people into financials. While dividend yields on financials make them look attractive at around 5% for some, I'm not sure they won't slide a little further down. Looking at P/E ratio I'm not convinced they are yet as undervalued as the pundits are saying. I remember during the tech bubble when they were so out of fashion you could pick them up and they had P/E's under 10, because everyone wanted that 100% a year they thought they could pick up easy with technology stocks.

If the financials do fall another 10%-20% in 2008 I probably will be a buyer. I'm talking of Canadian financial stocks which I follow more closely and there is always the possibility of consolidation if things get tough and the banks cry loud enough to convince the government they need it. The X factor as always is earnings as nobody seems to be sure just how bad the credit problem are or will get. Regardless I am fairly neutral on the sector and think you could do worse. Banks have been one of my favourite investments over the years because they are one of the safer investments in my opinion. If they collapse there will be blood in the streets and they would take us all down with them.

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